North America Faces Potential Power Shortages This Winter
NERC Warns of Electricity Shortages in U.S. and Canada
According to the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC), more than half of the U.S. and parts of Canada, which is home to around 180 million people, could experience electricity shortages during extreme cold this winter. This is due to inadequate infrastructure, as highlighted in NERC’s 2023-24 winter outlook released on Wednesday.
Threat to Bulk Power Generation and Fuel Supplies
NERC’s winter outlook warns that prolonged, wide-area cold snaps pose a threat to the reliability of bulk power generation and the availability of fuel supplies for natural gas-fired generation. The regulatory authority emphasized the devastating consequences that energy delivery disruptions can have for electric and gas consumers in affected areas.
High-Risk Regions and Vulnerable Grid Operators
NERC identified the U.S. Midwest, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and South, along with some Canadian provinces, as the highest-risk areas for electricity supply shortages this winter. Grid operators such as Midcontinent ISO, PJM Interconnection, SERC Reliability Corp, and Texas’ ERCOT are susceptible to generators going offline under extreme cold conditions.
Challenges in Gas Infrastructure and Load Forecasting
NERC highlighted the insufficient natural gas pipeline and infrastructure in certain major areas, such as PJM, MISO, New York, and New England. The authority also noted the growing complexity of load forecasting in winter and the potential risks of underestimating demand in extreme cold temperatures.
Regulatory Blind Spot and Winter Storm Impact
NERC, along with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, urged lawmakers to address a regulatory blind spot that was exposed during the Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022. The inquiry into the storm’s power outages revealed significant stress on both electric and gas systems in the eastern half of the U.S., with around 90,500 megawatts out at the same time.
Gas System Strain and Emergency Declarations
During Winter Storm Elliott, gas flows into pipelines were reduced, while demand for the fuel for heating and power generation increased, leading to dramatically lower line pressures. Additionally, in New York City, Consolidated Edison declared an emergency, facing a system collapse that would have taken “many months” to restore service in the middle of winter.
