TF International Securities Predicts Significant Decline in 2024 iPhone Shipments

TF International Securities Reports Significant Decline in 2024 iPhone Shipments

In a note on Tuesday, analysts at TF International Securities predicted a substantial decline in Apple’s 2024 iPhone shipments, citing structural challenges. They expect a year-on-year decrease of about 15%.

Supply Chain Survey Indicates Lower Shipments for Apple

The analysts explained that their latest supply chain survey revealed a decrease in Apple’s 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units, marking a 15% decrease compared to the previous year.

Anticipated Decline in iPhone Series Shipments

According to the report, the iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments are expected to decline by 10–15% year-on-year in the first and second halves of 2024, respectively. This decline is in comparison to the previous shipment numbers.

Challenges Faced by iPhone in the Market

The analysts highlighted the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design, such as AI and foldable phones, as one of the structural challenges faced by the iPhone. Additionally, they noted the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market as another issue, with Apple’s weekly shipments in China decreasing by 30–40% year-on-year in recent weeks.

Lack of Design Changes and Impact on Shipment Momentum

The analysts don’t foresee Apple introducing new iPhone models with significant design changes until 2025, which they believe will potentially harm Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.